Family offices are rarely short of investment opportunities. The more difficult question is where conviction is strong enough to translate into capital.
Our latest Somers Partnership research report, Where Conviction Meets Capital, explores that question through the investment priorities, concerns and future plans of family office principals, CIOs, investment directors and senior investment professionals across the UK, Channel Islands, Switzerland, North America, Asia-Pacific and beyond.
We have conducted this research in collaboration with our partners at Alumia, a partner-led investment firm that specialises in providing investment advice through an innovative approach, providing independent, best-in-class investment advice and diversified solutions.
The findings reveal an investment community that has, on the whole, enjoyed strong recent portfolio performance, but is approaching the next phase of the cycle with considerably more caution.
There is confidence, but it is measured. There is an appetite for new opportunities, but also a growing awareness that accessing them successfully may require different expertise, structures and relationships.
Perhaps most interestingly, there are some clear tensions between the risks family offices are most concerned about and the areas in which they are considering deploying capital.
Strong performance has not led to complacency
One of the clearest findings from the research is that family offices are broadly satisfied with how their portfolios have performed.
Not one respondent reported dissatisfaction with portfolio performance over the previous twelve months. Yet that does not translate into outright optimism about what comes next.
51% of respondents describe the 2026 investment environment as broadly neutral, while those taking a defensive or cautious position outnumber those who describe themselves as constructive. At the same time, 67% report stable positioning, rather than actively repositioning their portfolios.
It creates an interesting picture: portfolios have performed well, but family offices are not assuming that the conditions which supported those returns will simply continue. That caution appears well founded when we look at the risks occupying investment committees.
Geopolitics has become an investment variable
Geopolitical fragmentation and trade disruption emerge as the most significant perceived risk to portfolio performance.
This sits ahead of concerns about US equity valuations, particularly within technology, as well as elevated interest rates, the possibility of a G7 hard landing and US dollar weakness.
What makes this particularly interesting is what happens when we compare that risk hierarchy with planned allocation decisions.
Some of the strongest areas of future interest, such as energy transition, private equity and AI, are themselves highly exposed to geopolitical developments, supply chains, regulation and international policy.
The result is one of the central tensions within the report, family offices recognise geopolitical risk as a major threat, while simultaneously seeing some of the most compelling opportunities in areas directly affected by it.
For Principals, CIOs and investment teams, this places even greater emphasis on manager selection, access, diversification and the quality of the advice surrounding allocation decisions.
AI is commanding attention, but energy transition is attracting capital
Few investment themes have generated as much attention as artificial intelligence and our research reflects that.
AI and technology lead family office investment conversations by a considerable margin. Yet interestingly, they do not lead planned allocation increases. Instead, energy transition sits at the top of that priority list, narrowly ahead of AI and technology and private equity.
This distinction between the themes receiving attention and those receiving incremental capital is important. For some family offices, significant technology exposure may already exist within portfolios, meaning the current question is less about whether to participate in AI and more about concentration, valuation and how best to retain exposure as the sector develops.
Energy transition, meanwhile, combines a number of themes that are attractive to long-term capital, including infrastructure, real assets, natural resources and structural demand arising from changes in policy, energy security and the global economy.
Private markets also remain firmly within the opportunity set. Private equity retains strong support despite a challenging exit environment, while private equity and credit secondaries feature prominently among the opportunities respondents believe could prove compelling over the next two to three years.
Emerging markets: conviction without urgency
One of the most revealing areas of the research concerns emerging markets.
The structural investment case appears increasingly accepted. Diversification away from US concentration is the most commonly cited reason for considering emerging market exposure, ahead of demographic growth, valuation discounts and specific country or sector opportunities. Yet willingness to allocate remains more restrained.
Around a fifth of respondents are actively allocating to, or increasing, emerging market exposure, while the largest groups remain neutral or selectively positioned. Asia receives considerable attention, while India and Africa also emerge within respondents’ views of the forward opportunity set.
Many family offices appear to be waiting for greater rate stability and a reduction in geopolitical uncertainty before committing more substantially.
There is, however, an inherent tension in waiting for certainty. By the time an investment environment feels considerably safer, the valuation opportunity that originally made it attractive may already have narrowed.
The question for family offices is therefore becoming less about whether emerging markets warrant consideration and increasingly about when, where and through whom exposure should be accessed.
Investment ambition also creates a people question
Perhaps the most important finding for Somers Partnership is that changing investment strategies cannot be considered separately from the people and infrastructure required to execute them.
Respondents identify increased interest in private equity, venture capital and other specialist areas, while some simultaneously acknowledge gaps in the internal expertise needed to implement those strategies effectively.
Among the areas highlighted are private equity and venture capital experience, portfolio risk management and pipeline management. Most respondents already draw upon a combination of internal expertise and multiple external advisers, while relatively few currently operate through a formal outsourced CIO model.
For family offices, that creates an important strategic question.
It is one thing to identify where the next generation of investment opportunities may lie. It is another to ensure the family office has the right people, governance, advisers and access to pursue those opportunities successfully.
In some cases, that may mean recruiting additional investment expertise. In others it could mean strengthening external advisory relationships, using specialist investment partners, outsourcing particular capabilities or creating more flexible models that allow expertise to be brought in when it is needed.
Capital strategy and human capital strategy are increasingly interconnected.
Where family office capital may go next
Taken together, the findings do not suggest that family offices are retreating from opportunity.
Instead, they suggest a community that is well capitalised, has generally performed strongly and can see a number of potentially significant investment themes ahead, but is being deliberate about when and how to act.
AI, healthcare technology, energy transition, private equity and credit secondaries, defence, India, Africa and real assets all appear within the forward opportunity set identified by respondents. The challenge is converting that conviction into well-executed investment decisions.
That requires more than identifying an attractive asset class. It requires access to the right opportunities, specialist knowledge, strong governance, effective risk management and, increasingly, a network of trusted people who can fill capability gaps as strategies evolve.
At Somers Partnership, we have spent more than two decades working across the family office ecosystem and seeing first-hand how investment priorities, governance and talent requirements intersect. This research provides a fascinating snapshot of how those priorities are changing again.
The full ‘Where Conviction Meets Capital’ report explores the findings in greater detail, including family office attitudes towards risk, AI and technology, energy transition, private markets, emerging markets, team capability and the investment opportunities respondents believe will matter most over the next two to three years.
The report is available free of charge to family offices and the professionals who advise them. To request your copy, get in touch.
